ES & NQ: Smart Money Analysis (17th May 2024)

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Video Transcript:

Hello, everyone! It’s Dale here. Today’s video is going to be a bit different as it is done by my friend Vivek, who initially started as a member of our trading course and is now a professional trader recently funded with $1 million. Vivek is definitely someone worth listening to. He focuses solely on intraday trading the ES and NQ. His methods are different from mine as he uses mostly smart money concepts. Don’t worry if you don’t understand everything he does or says, this is most likely not the last video he will provide us. So here we go, here is Vivek’s analysis. One more thing, let me know what you think, how you liked it, and if you would like more videos like this from Vivek.

Alright, so here we go.

Hi, I am trading right here. It’s very important right now to see how NQ behaves in this inefficiency, this fair value gap (FVG). If NQ starts to dig into this FVG, we’ll have to see how it reacts at this level. If a bounce is going to happen, it is likely to occur in this area where it can revert. However, if it closes below this level, then it is very likely we will see NQ coming back to the discount side. This is the equilibrium line at 18,463, so it’s going to trade below this, and once it gets into the discount area, it is very likely to come to this area of inefficiency.

This particular inefficiency was created in this leg. The price came down, went up, and then this leg sent it right back. When you look at this leg up, it used this area first as resistance, then as support, pushing the price higher. This inefficiency has played a pivotal role. If the price closes below this, it is very likely to come here and then we’ll need to see what it does. This area can be a reversal point, or if it closes below this, we are talking about digging into it and potentially taking this level out. That’s how I’m going to internalize the order flow based on the price action of this chart. This 4-hour chart is going to be very important in determining what NQ is trying to do.

Now, let’s quickly look at ES. Just like NQ, ES also made an all-time high today and is currently trading in this FVG. The first important thing to see is if ES gets a bounce from this FVG. It could be from the top, middle, or bottom of the FVG. If it closes below this, it is very likely to come into the discount area. If you look at this area closely, there is one inefficiency here. The center of this inefficiency aligns with this equilibrium green line. If it closes below this, it is likely to come here, and this would be an important point to gauge at 5,283 to see what the price is trying to do at this level.

Just like NQ, this inefficiency sent the price down and then used it as support, pushing the price up. We’ll have to see if it comes all the way here and how it reacts. If it gets support here, it’s bullish, but if it closes below, it would be very bearish. Obviously, all of this won’t happen tomorrow, but this is how we are going to look at NQ and ES going forward.

One quick way to look at ES price action is this hourly chart. It has already created a small FVG. If it comes back and closes above it, it would be bullish. However, if it only wicks above it but closes below, it would indicate the price wants to come down. This FVG was created during the CPI release, and labeled as CPI FVG. If we look at this chart on ES, there are three consolidations marked. This reversal was the highest point. I pointed out this level yesterday on a 15-minute chart, and it did break below it, forming an FVG. These FVGs play a very important role in intraday trading. This candle closed just above it, but then the FVG pushed the price down.

To understand the price action, if we switch to a 5-minute chart, the next level I’m looking at is the bottom of this consolidation. Generally, there will be a reversal here. If the price crosses above it, it is likely going up, but if it goes above and then mitigates, the next level of interest is this lower level. Price generally moves in a ladder fashion, both up and down, and these consolidation areas are very important for monitoring prices throughout the day.

That’s about it. I know this turned out to be a longer video than I thought, but this covers what’s on my mind right now. We’ll see how the week ends.

17 thoughts on “ES & NQ: Smart Money Analysis (17th May 2024)”

  1. Robert Steward

    I am familiar with SMC, the video is VERY confusing for the audience. I am sure he knows what he is doing and talks about, but it was difficult if not impossible to follow his logic. He needs to get MUCH better at communicating his thoughts and recommendations of his SMC trading. He also does not include explanation of the basic concepts of SMC…order blocks, etc. He doesn’t mention all the excellent Trading View SMC indicators available (both paid and Free) – SMC indicators and Lux Algo etc. I would still be interested in seeing more if he improves his communication.

  2. Hi Dale,
    Thank you for this video. I too started my journey over here on your site and Im also using smart money concepts.
    Contrary to what Robert Steward has said above I believe that Vivek has done a great job. My analysis on NQ and ES was very similar. And in the time that Vivek had it isn’t possible to explain Fair Value Gaps and order blocks and PD arrays used in SMC.
    Im very interested in seeing more videos from Vivek. And I would be interested if he uses only SMC or does he also integrate your strategies into it.

  3. Agree with Robert – the video was confusing and convoluted. I’m familiar with SMC/ICT and there were significant gaps in Vivek’s explanations. Many of the “key levels” were arbitrary and used in retrospect, rather than based on volume. His 4h timeframe assessment would be different if he used a 1h chart for example. There are much better SMC videos on youtube – would not recommend this one.

  4. Very easy to understand and may be interested in further videos. If you understand “Volume Flow” you can easily understand this video.

  5. I get the sense that VIVEK knows precisely what he is doing. However, he must improve his presentation skills. I want to see more from Vivek.
    He should model his presentation after the Trader-Dale presentations. Saying things like “Here is the reaction.”
    Don’t say here – instead, say it as price XXX. We can watch for a reaction. Think about your audience as blind with a 4th-grade education. The idea is to project your thoughts with highly descriptive words.
    Excellent work on the analysis, and I want to see more of Vivek’s work.

  6. I enjoy and welcome more perspective from Vivek. I am certain that if he displayed volume profile, his presentation could be modeled from volume profile. The consolidation areas are clearly higher volume areas of institutional support or resistance. I can tell from the verbage he uses, that he is a patient trader who waits to see how price reacts around the consolidation areas he pointed out. That is the key to success. I am not all familiar with SMC, however, I am looking at the price action in ES in the same way.

  7. I’m not familiar with SM concepts but I think it would help the audience if Vivek explained his strategy as he develops the analysis. For me it was a bit difficult to follow. Thanks and a hope to see more videos of vivek

  8. I only trade Emini contracts so I found Vivek’s content very good. I have touched a bit on SMC so I get what he’s saying and the logic behind it. New traders may find it difficult to understand, but you will get that with any trading strategy or theory as a “newby”. If it was as easy as watching an 8-minute video to understand a concept everyone would be doing it. Thanks for sharing your analysis Vivek and I hope to see more from you in the “futures”………….Pun intended

  9. what an amazing analysis by VIVEK. i made money today on NQ based on his analysis. if he had a live room, i would join in a sec.

  10. Great video, would like to see more. Vivek is a million dollar funded trader for a reason. I like your content dale and I am pushing to get my first funded account as a intermediate trader I would say . Close to the Middle of the pack trader and I strive to Learn something new everyday from great people like you.

  11. Terrance Taylor

    Many thanks for your efforts. Your video prompted me to spend the rest of the day learning smart money concepts. I’d definitely like to see more from you.

  12. I would love to see more videos from Vivek and he mentions Order Flow but if he could also explain how he integrates it with his SMC strategy.

  13. Thanks Vivek for sharing your trading skills.
    Great video, would like to see more from you.

  14. I trade SMC/ICT and get what he is saying. But I can understand that people who are unfamiliar with these concepts are thinking he is talking jibberish. He explains it like everyone knows these concepts. It takes a long time to learn this and understand how this all works. SMC is a mentorship/course on its own. I’m learning this for over a few years now and can not unsee how price action follows these concepts. Price action is algorithmic delivered, from external range to internal range, old high/lows to fair value gaps. (premium to discount to fair market value)

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