Do you want ME to help YOU with your trading?
Video Transcript:
Hello everyone, it’s Dale here with new day trading analysis. Today, I’ll talk about the EUR/USD. What you see before you is the NinjaTrader 8 platform with my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators. This is a 30-minute chart of the EUR/USD, and today I’ll discuss two supports: this one and this one, along with the reasoning behind them.
Let’s start with the first one. This is a recent support which formed yesterday. It is at 1.0761 and is based on a Volume Profile setup called the Trend Setup. You trade the Trend Setup when there’s a trend, like this one, and you use a Flexible Volume Profile—a Volume Profile you can move around the chart. You use it to look into specific areas of the trend. What you want to see is a significant volume cluster. This is a volume cluster where heavy volumes formed, showing the place where buyers were active and adding to their long positions as the price moved higher. This is an important place for buyers, and the level is at the beginning of that heavy volume zone. In my experience, this is where the probability of a reaction is highest. So, if there’s a pullback at some point in the future, it doesn’t need to be today, but if there is, chances are there will be a reaction from this level as buyers will want to defend this important area.
One more thing that adds strength to this level is the Anchored VWAP. If you look at this chart, especially this week’s price action, you’ll notice an important place here: the low of the week, which is also where the price closed this opening gap. You always want to anchor the Anchored VWAP to important places on the chart. Anchor it to the swing point, the candle that created the low of that swing point. As you can see, the price has already reacted nicely to it with these pullbacks, and currently, the Anchored VWAP is very close to our level. If it stays in this general area around that level at the time of the pullback, it will add strength to that level, increasing the chance of a successful reaction.
Alright, so that’s the reasoning behind this support at 1.0761. Now let’s check out the second one. The second support is based on that important swing point I mentioned. This level is at 1.0780. Let me use the Flexible Volume Profile again to show you why I like this level so much. This is a heavy volume cluster formed within this rejection zone, indicating where buyers became active and reversed the selling activity into a new uptrend. This is the most important place because of the volumes visible on the Volume Profile, signaling buyers jumping in at this place. If the price pulls back to this level, chances are buyers will become active again, defend this place, and push the price upwards.
The ideal scenario would be a pullback to the first volume cluster and a reaction, then a pullback to the second volume cluster and another reaction. Now, I’m not saying the price must drop here and then there. I’m only saying that if this happens, I’ll be going long from those levels.
Let’s take a quick look at the calendar on the Forex Factory website. Today, I don’t expect too much volume and volatility because it’s a bank holiday in the US, but tomorrow will be very important. I think it will be a very volatile day because we have the NFP news and unemployment news in the US. Also, if you are trading the Canadian dollar, there’s the unemployment rate macro news affecting it. These are strong macro news events you definitely don’t want to trade around due to high volatility and unpredictable markets.
Just a quick note before I wrap up the video: I’m currently running a special Independence Day sale on my website, trader-dale.com. If you click on “Trading Course and Tools” it will take you to a place where you can get a discount on my best educational and indicator packs. This is the Volume Profile Pack, which will teach you everything about volume profile trading, and the Orderflow Pack, which will teach you everything about day trading with order flow. Both packs include my custom-made indicators. Check out the packs and watch the videos, which will show you everything in more detail. Currently, these packs are heavily discounted, and if you want both together, you can get the Volume Profile Pack and the Orderflow Pack in a special bundle for only $597.
Alright, so that’s the special Independence Day sale I’m currently running. I hope you liked the video. Thanks for watching, and I look forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading!
