Do you want ME to help YOU with your trading?
Video Transcript:
One
consolidation, expansion. Another consolidation, expansion. Another
consolidation. Big push higher. Coming down.
Price
comes to trade in this area. Very likely it will trade to this area. Comes
down. Trades into this area.
Takes
the low, and then for the low—right? It’s… uh… and if I have to—so again,
market maker model, right?
One
level of consolidation. Let me just change the color.
One…
You
can say two…
And
you can say three…
…on
this chart. And what you want to see is that toward the end, there is an
explosive move, which I think it’s really setting up for. And then it comes
down, right? So that would be the thing that happens. If I look at it on a
5-minute chart, it’s like—can I make out something like this? Of course I can,
right? So, you know, you can start from 3:15—you can—but whatever we are
looking at, it’s the same thing. Sometimes viewing it on the 5-minute chart
just makes it easier for the eyes to understand and recognize.
Now,
here, as you see, there’s a lot of wick. I’ll mark that as something like this
right here.
This
is the third one, still under that. And this is followed by an explosive move
at that level, and then it comes down. Now, during lunch, it can actually keep
moving in this area. It can keep on doing whatever it has to do. But I think
the best setup will only happen once this is taken out. Otherwise, it’ll be one
of those days where it may not do anything—it’ll just chop, chop, chop—and then
the real action happens, you know, maybe overnight or whatever. So we’ll have
to see.
But
given the time—given that it’s still A.M.—this could be… if it’s one of those
days… I’ll give you a very important clue. If this is buy side, and
pertaining to the time, I’ll give you—you know—what you’ll see here is that if
something has to happen today—okay, this is all A.M. session, right? From here,
you have 10:05 onward. If this has to happen, then what you’ll see is that the
high or the smart money reversal will happen during lunch. It has to happen
during lunch.
If
it drags beyond lunch, right? And if it’s still consolidating and lunch is long
gone, then this doesn’t happen. Everything is also scheduled. The algorithm is
based on time as well, right?
But
if we actually see a quick burst during lunch, and then a reversal, then
there’s a likelihood that price can actually get here and below during the P.M.
session. So this will then become the A.M. session, and this sell side of the
curve will become the P.M. session.
And
your smart money reversal will happen during lunch. This is a typical
characteristic. So let’s see when the high forms—what time the high is formed.
We still have about 30 minutes before lunch is over. So, I mean, this looks
like it’s how it’s setting up, right? The buy, the sell—and the sell is going
to be high probability because it also aligns with the higher time frame (HTF)
order flow and the draw, which is lower. Makes sense?
As
you saw in the earlier section, this is what transpired this A.M. There was a
consolidation, followed by two smaller consolidations, with the smart money
reversal happening around 2:23 P.M. So when the smart money reversal happens
that late, the probability is that during the normal business hours, the sell
side of the program would not generally be complete, meaning it won’t reach the
sell side liquidity. And that’s exactly what happened. The market closed
somewhere here during regular hours and was hanging around here. But as we were
discussing in the live session, there was a lot of liquidity built on each side
of these consolidation bands, and even the higher time frame liquidity was
lower today, as we discussed earlier. And that’s exactly what transpired.
Even
though it didn’t really happen during the regular market session, post-market
we saw a sudden drop that ran the sell side liquidity.
Things
I would point out here: you can make out the market maker buy side model from
here to here, and then the sell side of the program. There are certain things
pertaining to structure, liquidity, etc., that are in play here. And if the
smart money reversal happens around, say, lunch—which is between 12:00 to 1:30
P.M. New York time—then you can also see a total P.M. reversal that pretty much
runs the sell side, targeting the A.M. low.
That’s
a quick one for today. I hope you found it useful, and I’ll see you in the next
one.
Hey
everyone, it’s Dale here. I hope you enjoyed the video. If you’d like to trade
alongside me and our team of prop firm funded traders every day, then click the
link below the
video and hop aboard. We’re looking forward to trading with you.
