On Friday, I wrote an article on long-term investment in Oil. I talked about the prices dropping crazy low and making Oil very attractive for a long-term investment. If you missed the article you can read it here:
Today, I am going to look more into intraday Oil analysis. You know, even an intraday trade could prove a good starting point for a swing (or long-term) trade. So, if you are looking for an ideal price to jump in a long-term long on Oil, then this analysis could prove helpful.
Buying activity on Oil
The first significant buying activity on Oil occurred a few days ago (2nd April) when Donald Trump made a statement that he made an agreement with Saudi Arabia (Oil gained around 25% immediately).
I believe that this could be the start of a new uptrend. For this reason, I am looking for significant volume clusters created within the newly formed trend.
What I did was that I used my Flexible Volume Profile on the most significant trend day – the day of the announcement (2nd April). It revealed a nice volume cluster (around 22.20) that occurred before the news came out.
Now, do you think that the big guys who move and manipulate the markets did not know beforehand about this announcement? I am not really sure. I guess that they knew and I think they were jumping into longs in this volume cluster area.
What will happen when the price makes it back to this volume cluster again? I think that it is pretty likely that those big guys will try to defend their longs. They will try and push the price upwards again. That’s why I think it will work as a support.
30 Minute Oil chart below:
There is also one more confirmation here. If you look at the picture below, then you can see that the price reacted quite nicely to this 22.20 area in the past. It worked as a resistance.
It was not exactly the 22.20 level, but it does not matter. The important thing is that it was somewhere in this area.
When the price went past the resistance it then became a support.
60 Minute Oil chart below:
OPEC meeting tomorrow
There is an OPEC meeting scheduled on Thursday (tomorrow). This could really make the Oil prices very volatile. You should be very careful trading the Oil at that time tomorrow. My advice would be to avoid trading it. At least avoid doing intraday trades on Oil. The situation on Oil is now very tense.
Did you watch the Weekly Trading Ideas video I published on Monday? I was talking about a resistance on NZD/USD. You can see the prediction (screenshot from the video) and the result below.
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If you look closely, then you can notice that the price actually missed the exact level I talked about. It missed it by just 1.5 pip and then there was this really nice sell-off.
You know support and resistances are not exact levels. They are “ZONES”. The price should react somewhere in that zone. It does not need to react exactly at the heaviest volume peak. Like in this case – the absolute volume peak was 1.5 pip higher and the price just did not make it that high and the sell-off started sooner.
This happens sometimes and there is no way how to avoid this with Price Action or Volume profile. BUT there is a tool which actually helps avoid such situations! It is called Order Flow and right now I am developing my own Order Flow software and I cannot wait to present it to you!
I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!
Stay safe and happy trading!