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Video Transcript:
Hello
everyone, it’s Dale here with a new weekly trading ideas video. Today we are
going to cover three trading levels. One will be on the GBP/USD, then
the next one will be on the USD/JPY, and the third one on the AUD/USD.
So let’s check them out.
What
you see before you is the NinjaTrader 8 platform with my custom-made Volume
Profile and VWAP indicators. The chart is a 30-minute chart of the GBP/USD.
What I want to talk about here is a resistance levelβthis one, which is at 1.37.
As you can see, this level formed a couple of days ago. It is based on this
very strong and aggressive sell-off. Let me now use the Volume Profile over the
whole trend areaβthis trend areaβand show you how the volumes were distributed,
because this is important.
There
is a significant volume cluster right here, right before the sell-off started.
What this is telling us is that sellers were adding to their short positions
here, and then they initiated this sell-off. This heavy volume zone represents
a strong resistance because sellers are likely to be active here again. So if
there’s a pullback to this level in the future, it’s likely that the sellers
from here will initiate selling activity again and push the price downwards
from this level.
So
this is a Volume Profile setup, but it’s not the only setup this level is based
onβitβs also based on a price action setup. Let me show you. If you look here,
the price was reacting to this level in the past, which means it was a support.
Because the price made this reaction here, and then it went past the support,
turning that support into a new resistance. When support gets breached, it
becomes resistance. So that’s the second setup.
As I
was saying, we have a Volume Profile setup right hereβthose heavy volumes
formed within the trendβthatβs the first setup. And then the second setup is
the support becoming resistance. Both setups align at this level, and theyβre
telling me that it is a strong resistance and thereβs likely to be a reaction
from it. So what we need to do now is just wait for the pullback, and if it
occurs, then take the short from there.
Oh,
and thereβs one more additional thing I forgot to mention: a fair value gap.
Itβs highlighted in red. This is a huge fair value gapβthatβs a concept from
smart money trading. What I like to do is trade from the beginning of the fair
value gap, which is exactly our level. This is the beginning of the fair value
gap. My software highlights the fair value gaps automatically, and as you can
see, itβs highlighted in red. So yes, we have three setups pointing to this
level, and that essentially makes the level a strong one.
All
right. So thatβs the level Iβm going to trade on the GBP/USD. Letβs now
take a look at the next trading idea, which will be on the USD/JPY.
This
is a 30-minute chart of the USD/JPY, and the level I want to show you is
a support level at 143.86. This support is based on two thingsβwell,
actually three things. The first is my favorite Volume Profile setup, which is
called the Volume Accumulation Setup. For this setup, you need to see a
rotation like this and heavy volumes within that rotation. Then you need to see
aggressive trend activity like this oneβvery aggressive buying activity. Then
you wait for a pullback and take it from that level. Because buyers who were
accumulating long positions here should become active again and push the price
upwards. So it is those buyers we are counting on to become active and push the
price up.
So
thatβs the first thing: the Volume Profile setupβthe accumulation setup.
The
second thing is a huge fair value gap. In this case, it is highlighted in
green. This is the big fair value gap. Again, this comes from smart money
concepts. This level is the beginning of the fair value gap, so that adds
strength to our level.
The
third thing is if you look at the weekly Volume Profileβthatβs this volume
profile showing how volumes were distributed throughout the whole previous
weekβthe Point of Control of the whole week, the weekly Point of Control, is
exactly at our level. That also adds strength to this level.
Now,
there is one risky thing about this level. If you look at this low, itβs kind
of a weak low. Thereβs probably some liquidity below those little swing lows.
What could happen is that when the price makes a pullback to this level, the
market could try to take out that liquidity, shooting past our support level.
So thatβs the risk of this level. Itβs not a perfect level, but because we have
three pretty strong setups pointing to it, Iβm still willing to take the risk
and go long from there. But I just wanted to mention that thereβs also some
risk involved because of this kind of weak low.
All
right. Thatβs it for the USD/JPY.
The
next level is on the AUD/USD. Here we have the same setupβthe Volume
Accumulation Setupβas on the USD/JPY. Let me show you. That was a
rotation followed by a strong trend formed just recently. What you want to see
are heavy volumes within the rotation. You want to use the Volume Profile like
this to make sure there were heavy volumes within the rotation, which was
followed by the trend. Then you trade from the beginning of that heavy volume
zone, which is right here. The level is at 0.6547.
So
when you see something like this, you just wait for the pullback, and when the
price hits that level again, you go short. Chances are that sellers from here
will become active and push the price downwards from this level again.
Thereβs
one additional thing that adds strength to this level. If you look here, the
price was reacting to this level in the past. That means it was a support. When
the price blew past that support, it turned into a new resistance. So we have a
Volume Profile setup, we have a support-becoming-resistance setup (which is a
price action setup), and also, thereβs a little fair value gap highlighted in
red. You can see it here. That also adds strength to the level.
As I
was saying, we just need to wait for the pullback and then take it from there.
Now,
thereβs one more thing I want to talk about, and itβs the upcoming macro news.
This is the Forex Factory website. What I have here is the news filtered, so it
only shows the most important macro news throughout the week. Today is
Mondayβno strong macro news is listed here. But if I scroll down a bit, thereβs
one important news event. Itβs about tariffs, and President Trump is saying
heβll make an announcement about tariffs at 12:00 p.m. Eastern. So be very,
very careful about that. Donβt place any intraday trades during this release,
as I think the markets will be volatile at that time.
Now,
if you guys are interested in learning more about Volume Profile trading, and
if you would like to trade alongside me every day, then I recommend visiting my
website at traderdale.com. If you click βTrading
Course and Toolsβ it will take you to this page. Currently, Iβm running a
special Independence Day discount, which means you can get my indicators and
educational packs at a huge discount. You can get all those packs
separatelyβthe Volume Profile Pack, Order Flow Pack, VWAP Pack, and Smart Money
Pack. Or if you scroll down a bit, you can get all four of them for a massive
discountβonly $697 altogether.
And
if youβre interested in joining us in the live trading room and trading with me
and other prop traders every day, then I recommend clicking the button that
says βFTAββthat
stands for Funded Trader Academy. On this page, you can learn more about our
offer, what we do, and how we can help you. If you like it, you can book a
call, talk with us about the service, and decide whether or not itβs right for
you.
Before
I wrap the video up, Iβd like to announce the winner of the contest we had last
time. The prize was my custom-made Volume Profile and VWAP indicators for the
TradingView platform. Right now on your screen, you see the name of the person
who won the contest. Congratulations to the winner!
And
what Iβll do next is run another contest for the upcoming week. The only thing
you need to do to participate is leave a comment below this video, which Iβll
publish on YouTube. Next week, Iβll randomly pick one person to win this set of
custom-made indicators.
So thatβs about it. Thanks for watching the video, and Iβll be looking forward to seeing you next time. Until then, happy trading.
