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Video Transcript:
Hello, everyone! It’s Dale here. Today’s video is going to be presented by Vivek, a member of our trading course and a funded trader who recently secured $1 million in funding. Vivek is trading using smart money concepts, and here is his smart money analysis of the NQ and ES for this week. Enjoy, and I hope you’ll find it helpful.
This is a weekly analysis video for May 19th to 24th. I’m recording this on Sunday evening, and the futures market has already opened. This is the weekly NQ candle. I’ll start with the analysis for NQ, followed by ES.
Looking at the weekly chart for NQ, you’ll notice a lot of bullish signals. For instance, we have a weekly fair value gap (FVG) indicated by this expansion candle and another one by this expansion candle. Additionally, there is an inversion created here, which was a bearish FVG that got reverted. This indicates a bullish inversion, so all three signals are bullish. Until we see contrary evidence, my bias for this week is bullish.
One important data point I’ll be focusing on this week is the top of the wick of this candle at 18,348.50. If we consider this candle forming for this week, let’s say the low of the candle is somewhere here and the high is somewhere here. What will happen is an FVG will be created from the top to the low of this candle if it closes somewhere here. Typically, the follow-up would be for the candle to revert to the FVG, rebalance it, and then move higher if the order flow remains bullish. This is a typical workflow.
However, if the market is in a hurry to go higher, this candle could go all the way up here, and sometimes the low of the candle will be very close to the tick of this level and then revert. In that scenario, there won’t be any inefficiency, suggesting the market wants to go higher quickly. This is a key signal I watch, called an immediate rebalance. An immediate rebalance would mean the weekly candle comes here, leaving no gap between the high and low, and then takes off.
The other scenario is if the order flow turns bearish, it could be a lot deeper. Regardless, we need to monitor this particular level and how the price reacts to it. This is one level I’ll be watching very carefully this week.
Now, let’s move to the daily chart. The daily chart also shows many bullish signals, similar to the weekly chart. Last week, the inversion FVG came down a bit, but it didn’t even touch the mean of this FVG and closed above it. These are all bullish signals.
Next, I’ll look at the 4-hour chart. The first sign of a bearish takeover would be any candle closing below this FVG. If this happens, the price would likely come to the discount of this dealing range, which is below this green line. In that case, an important level would be this FVG. The equilibrium of this dealing range and the mean of this FVG are very close. From here, it would be a high-probability trade to this level. We then need to see whether it wants to go lower or revert.
Another measure to consider is that we don’t have any prior data points for all-time highs. Last week’s high was very close to about 1.5 standard deviations of this consolidation. If the price pushes higher, it could reach about 2 standard deviations, which is around the 18,911 level. This is another level to watch if it tries to make a new all-time high.
Now, for ES, the story is similar. I won’t repeat everything, but the weekly immediate rebalance level for ES is 52.64. On the daily chart, we need to monitor the levels and FVGs. On the 4-hour chart, the first sign of bearish control would be a 4-hour candle closing below this FVG. If this happens, the price would likely move to the discount, similar to NQ. An important level in that scenario would be this FVG, and its mean is aligned with the equilibrium.
If the price comes through, touches this FVG, and then reverts, it would be very bullish. I’ll send updates throughout the week to monitor these levels, but this is how I’m looking at this week and potential levels.
That’s all for today. We’ll be back tomorrow with more updates.
Not very good explanation and not clear. Did not enjoy the analysis.
I think this is because you don’t understand SMC concepts yet. FVG (Fair Value Gaps) Orderblocks and breaker blocks are very powerful candle sticks when tou see how they interact with price action (and time, this is so important!)
Very well done. I use Smart Money Concepts (ICT/Michael Huddlestone) for a while now, and you need to get familiar with this to understand this type of analysis. Once you see it, you can’t unsee it. It works very well since price action is really algorithmic delivered.
I have to second what Marcel has said above, you do need to be familiar with ICT concept to really understand the video.
However @Vivek I like your higher time frame read and how you are getting your Bias, thank you.
Thank you for introducing us to a new concept that the optimal goal is to make money on the market. However I have a question, How do you plot the Intraday Fair Value Gap IFVG, the standard deviation, what are all those levels? how do I plot them on a small time frame? and how do we manage that from top down analysis(big time frame to smal time frame 30 min, 5min) since your analysis is based on big time frame(weekly, Daily, 4H)?
Hi,
Can you please make a strategy video of prop firm trailing threshold to get the funded account.
Thanks
I enjoyed Vivek’s analysis and his comments on *how & why & forward thought on price levels. Good presentation. I want to see more.
I´m not familiar with the smart money concepts so for me was a bit difficult to follow but I like Vivek take time to explain in details his analysis and levels.
Hi Trader Dale,
I just took the time to go over Vivics analysis and it was very well done! Does he only trade the higher timeframe’s or does he apply his entries on the lower time frame? The analysis in terms of smart money is right on point but in-terms of timeframes for possible execution, is not clear. In my opinion, that is the only piece of information that is not presented? Other than that, he has done an amazing job with this (smc) analysis💯.
Thank you for sharing this with us!
JuanL