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Video Transcript:
This is NQ, and the important thing to note here is that this is obviously a weekly chart. It has taken out last week’s high, and while this is still early in the week and developing, on the daily chart, you can see that this was the main big candle following the tariff news announcement—specifically when the 90-day extension was given. So, this was a significant candle.
If you look closely, there was an equal high that we had marked earlier. That particular liquidity was taken out. You can see right here where it was taken. Importantly, this is yesterday’s high. If you notice, that high was taken out, and then in the overnight candle, they ran this liquidity one more time. I believe this happened very close to the London session. We’ll come back to that.
Moving down, there’s definitely more incentive for the market makers to run it to 19386, at least. So, somewhere around that level. Obviously, we’ll need to dissect it. That level—19386.75—can be considered a draw.
If I switch to the 4-hour chart—and let me just clean this up—these were the highs. If you look at the 4-hour, it has clearly gone into consolidation. This is the consolidation high, and this is the consolidation low. This, I believe, is one daily low.
This is yesterday’s low, to be specific. So again, we have consolidation. And generally, in consolidation, what you see is that both the high and the low get taken out—even if the price is going to reverse afterward.
What’s very important on this chart is the fair value gap, which is right here. It aligns with where these lows are. What could happen is that price trades into that area. This is definitely a logical scenario if we see a bit of reversal here.
Looking at the 1-hour chart, we have this low, and we are focusing on that particular level. These are all key elements. Also, this is where the end dogs and nogs are located. What we’re observing here are these lows: this was 285, which was yesterday’s low, and this is another low that we’ve pinpointed.
Not only are there fair value gaps, but there is also a new weekly opening gap. If the price comes down, it will likely come into that area.
Now, what would be a really great setup—if you just look at this chart and all these gaps—a high-probability setup would be the price coming down, hitting this zone, and then attacking this area again. That would be a high-probability scenario if it plays out.
On the 4-hour chart, this section—yes, this one right here—shows massive consolidation over the past few days. You can see that the high was taken out once here. From there, price came down and took out this low. After that, it came back up, ran all these lows, yet still engineered more liquidity, and ran the high once more here.
Now it’s coming down again, and that’s why we’re saying this is a potential drop.
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