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Video Transcript:
All
right, so let’s go over NASDAQ. The good thing is that NQ and ES are perfectly
correlated right now, which is exactly what we want to see. We have trend line
liquidity and this big one-hour fair value gap right here. On the four-hour
chart, that fair
value gap is smaller, but it’s still visible. So, we have both a one-hour
and a four-hour fair value gap being respected. We also have trend line
liquidity right here, which means we’re seeing conflicting draws on liquidity.
This is what happened yesterday. Technically, this is the draw on liquidity—it
has to be, because we’re defending both the four-hour and the one-hour levels
and rejecting from them. So, the odds are that this area is going to be hit
first.
That
doesn’t mean we can’t take out some liquidity here and then react differently.
If you look at the 15-minute chart, that’s the hourly low, but it’s also
Wednesday’s low. Here’s Wednesday’s high. Yesterday, we not only traded between
Wednesday’s high and low, but also inside Wednesday’s initial balance. This
morning, it looks like we’re going to open inside yesterday’s initial balance
after failing twice to attract sellers. This is an excellent 15-minute signal
right here—strong overnight momentum to the upside, clean target hits, and
liquidity taken out. A long right there, with a stop just below that candle and
a target at the afternoon highs, gave a 1.75 risk-to-reward. Easy trade. This
is exactly what we’re looking for in an entry model.
We
delivered from a fair value gap right here. We took internal liquidity, had a
fair value gap to the downside that created displacement, then reversed with
momentum and had clear targets to the upside. We still have clear targets
above, so this trade could keep going. You can see yesterday’s liquidity and
additional liquidity sitting above. There’s also a high-volume area here. So
even though this should be the main draw on liquidity, it’s still possible to
take out several levels above before heading lower. I think this area is much
more likely. If we start hitting this zone and turn lower, I’ll be very
confident in shorting down here. If we break above, I’ll need more
confirmation, even if we do get a rejection. I’d still expect a reaction after
trading into this high-volume node right above POC.
To
reiterate, on the higher timeframe we are still moving from internal to
external liquidity, but it doesn’t have to be a smooth drop. It could be choppy
while building liquidity. We have the symposium this morning at 10:00 a.m. and
Trump speaking at 12:00 p.m., so we should see volatility and manipulation
today. Just be careful, know the key levels, and understand what to look for
when price reaches them. Keep in mind the trend line liquidity that’s being
run—it’s possible we clear all this trend line liquidity, take out liquidity
above, and then run the liquidity below. That way most traders lose, but we
would win if that happens. That would be the perfect A++ scenario.
It
doesn’t always work out that way, but you know the key levels. Let’s trade
around them, stay careful, and have a good day.
Hey everyone, it’s Dale here. I hope you enjoyed the video. If you’d like to trade alongside me and our team of prop firm-funded traders every day, click the link below the video and hop aboard. We look forward to trading with you.
