CAD/JPY: Volume Profile & Price Action Analysis

Today, I will do an intraday analysis of CAD/JPY. There are quite a lot of interesting things to point out here!

There was a strong trend movement on CAD/JPY yesterday. If you are reading my Market Commentary articles from time to time, then you know that I like to look for significant “volume clusters” within such trends.

Trend analysis with Volume Profile

What I do is that I use my Flexible Volume Profile and I stretch it over the whole trend area. Then I look for places with heavy volumes within the trend (= volume clusters).

In this case, there was a strong volume cluster created around the middle of the trend movement.

A volume cluster in an uptrend tells us, that the buyers who were pushing the price upwards into the trend were adding to their long positions there – at the volume cluster.

How does this information help us? It helps us because when the price makes it back into this volume cluster area again, the buyers who entered their long positions there are likely to become active and to push the price upwards again.

This is why such a volume cluster represents strong support. In this case, the support is around 79.73.

CAD/JPY; 30 Minute chart:

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Price Action setup

There is also another piece of information that confirms this 79.73 support.

It is a simple Price Action setup which tells us that a breached resistance becomes a support. This is, in fact, my favorite Price Action setup.

As you can see from the picture below, the price already reacted to this 79.73 zone in the past. It worked as a resistance.

Now, when the price went through this resistance, it became a support.

CAD/JPY; 30 Minute chart:

A significant Volume Accumulation area

Another significant area on CAD/JPY is the place from which the new uptrend started.

Strong trends usually start from a rotation and in this case, it was also like that. The reason for this is that the big trading institutions need to get ready for a big move.

They don’t enter their positions like you and me with one click. They need to accumulate their massive positions without being noticed. The best place for this is in a rotation.

When the price makes is back into an area where they accumulated their longs, those big guys are likely to defend their longs. They do that by pushing the price upwards. That’s what makes this area (79.46) a strong support.

An ideal way to identify such an area is to use my Flexible Volume Profile to look for the volume accumulations within rotations which were followed by a trend.

I call this a “Volume Accumulation setup” and you can learn more about it in my Volume Profile book, which you can download for FREE by clicking the banner below:

Weekly Point of Control (POC)

Apart from the Volume Accumulation setup, there is also one more thing confirming this 79.46 support.

It is the Point of Control (POC) of the Week. A Weekly POC is best visible on a Fixed Weekly Volume Profile (you can get this as a part of any educational pack from HERE).

It shows where the heaviest volumes were traded throughout the whole week. In this case, it nicely aligns with our support at 79.46 as the support lies EXACTLY at the Weekly POC.

Whenever you see a strong trend starting from a Weekly Point of Control, you should pay attention to it. Such POC often works as an important place which the big trading institutions keep an eye on.

The reason is that this is usually the place where they entered most of their trading positions.

CAD/JPY, 60 Minute chart with Weekly Volume Profile:

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Happy trading!

-Dale

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CHF/JPY: Volume Accumulation Trading Setup

In my latest market analysis, I talked about an intraday resistance on CHF/JPY. There was a nice reaction to it on Friday. First, there was a quick +16 pip reaction, and then on the market open, the reaction continued and made +26 pips.

Still, it is always safest to close all your intraday positions before the weekend. There could be an opening gap which could cause your account a lot of harm if the market went the wrong way. So, in this case, it would be just best to close your position in green numbers before the market closed.

If you missed this level prediction and analyiss, you can read about it here:

CHF/JPY: Volume Profile analysis and prediction

You can see the reaction to the 114.06 resistance below:

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CHF/JPY – Volume Profile analysis

In today’s analysis, I will also comment on the CHF/JPY as there is another nice trading opportunity.

What I want to talk about is a newly formed support around 113.45.

On Friday, there was a rotation formed around the 113.45 area. If you use Volume Profile you can see that there were heavy volumes traded there, and most of them at 113.45.

From this place, a strong buying activity started. This means that there were buyers entering their long positions in that rotation. Then those buyers started aggressive buying and with Market orders pushed the price into a new uptrend.

When the price returns back to this area again in the future, then it is pretty likely that those buyers will become active again and they will try to push the price upwards from this support again.

Below is a CHF/JPY, 30 Minute chart with the highlighted 113.45 support:

Learn Volume Accumulation setup HERE

The setup I used in Friday’s analysis and also in today’s analysis is called the Volume Accumulation setup, and you can learn more about it for example in my Volume Profile Book which you can download for FREE by clicking the banner below.

Happy trading,

-Dale

Happy trading!

-Dale

EUR/USD: Day Trading Volume Profile and Price Action Analysis

In my yesterday’s article, I did an intraday trading analysis of EUR/CAD. You can check it out here if you missed it:

EUR/CAD: A Complete Volume Profile, Price Action, and VWAP analysis

Today’s example will be a bit similar as there will also be Price Action and Volume Profile confluences.

EUR/USD – Recent development

Let’s get to it and have a look at what happened on the EUR/USD yesterday.

The most important thing on EUR/USD yesterday was a strong buying activity/uptrend which started in the EU session.

When there is an uptrend like this, I am always interested in how the volumes were distributed within the trend area.

Volume Clusters

What I look for are significant and nicely visible Volume Clusters.

In this case, there was a nice Volume Cluster created in the middle of yesterday’s uptrend.

A Volume Cluster which is created within an uptrend tells us, that there were buyers adding to their Long positions there. Those are the volumes we see in the Volume Cluster.

From that place the buyers pushed the price further up.

What happens when there is a pullback to this Volume Cluster area at some point in the future?

There is a solid chance that the buyers who entered their Longs there will become active again and they will defend this area.

As a result, that should push the price upwards again (it will work as a Support).

Check it out in the 30 Minute EUR/USD chart below:

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Price Action setup

There is also one more thing I wanted to show you about this Support. It is the same Price Action setup I talked about in my article yesterday.

The basic logic behind this setup is that a breached Resistance becomes a Support (and vice versa).

The picture below shows the same chart, only with 60 Minute time frame and it’s little bit zoomed out.

What I marked there for you are two strong selling reactions to the 1.1376 area I spoke of earlier.

Those two reactions tell us that this area worked as a strong Resistance in the past. For this reason, when this Resistance got breached yesterday, it became a Support.

This is quite an old (but working) Price Action setup which I like to use.

So, all in all we have volume-based Support (based on Trend Setup), and at the same area also a Price Action setup.

I really like a combination of those two setups. Trades based on this combo have a really good chance of success!

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below.

Happy trading!

-Dale

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EUR/CAD: A Complete Volume Profile, Price Action, and VWAP analysis

Today, I will do a day trading analysis of EUR/CAD using Volume Profile, Price Action, and VWAP.

I usually start doing my intraday trading analysis using only a simple 30 Minute Price Action chart.

The things that I look for first, are rotation areas (sideways price channels) and strong trends.

Today, I saw both on EUR/CAD. There was a rotation and from that rotation a strong uptrend started.

Volume Profile analysis

Now it is a time to use Volume Profile to see how the volumes were distributed there.

As you can see from the picture below, I stretched my Flexible Volume Profile over the whole rotation area (and also through a part of the trend, but that is not really important).

The Volume Profile showed me how the volumes were distributed there. This way I was immediately able to tell that there were massive volumes traded in that rotation area.

The most important thing in such a heavy volume zone is always the Point Of Control (POC).

POC is the place where the heaviest volumes were traded = the peak.

In this example, there was a rotation followed by an uptrend. This means that buyers were entering their Long positions in that rotation (creating those  heavy volumes we see on Volume Profile).

Then those buyers started an aggressive buying activity (using Market orders) and they pushed the price upwards (into the uptrend).

When the price makes it back into the heavy volume zone again (sometime in the future), I expect that those buyers who were building up their Long positions there will become active again and that they will push the price upwards from there again.

That’s why I think the POC at 1.5369 is a strong support.

Price Action analysis

Another thing to notice is visible when you zoom out the chart a bit and use higher time frame (I used 60 Minute).

It shows that the price was reacting really nicely to this 1.5369 area before. Whenever the price reached this area, it bounced off it. It worked as a strong Resistance.

Now, when the price went through this Resistance, the Resistance turned into a new Support.

This is my favorite Price Action setup. You can read more about it in this article:

PRICE ACTION: Support becoming a Resistance (and vice versa)

This Price Action setup gives me a nice confirmation of the Volume-based setup I talked about earlier.

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VWAP analysis

There is also one more bonus to all this. It is visible on the VWAP indicator.

Below is the same 60 Minute chart, but this time let’s have a look at the VWAP.

My most favorite VWAP for intraday trading is the Weekly VWAP and its Deviations (the “grey lines”).

Those “grey lines” work as Supports and Resistances on their own. Currently, the lower 1st Deviation is almost at the support I talked about (1.5369 area).

This means that also the VWAP indicator tells us that there is a support in that 1.5369 area.

If you would like to learn more about VWAP trading setups, you can do so here:

VWAP Trading Setups

Below is the 60 Minute chart with the 1st VWAP Deviation:

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Conclusion

As you can see, we found a trading level which is confirmed by three completely different trading strategies/tools.

The 1.5369 Support showed on Volume Profile, on Price Action, and also on VWAP. That’s how I like it. The more confluences, the better!

Can this level fail? Sure it can! Even if we had all the confluences we could think of it could still fail. The market could change its sentiment dramatically and the price could just shoot past this support without any reaction. Things like this do happen.

There is no strategy that would work 100%, but doing a proper analysis like this one, using multiple confluences with different trading approaches/indicators makes the chance of a successful trade higher.

That’s what trading is all about. Having the probability on your side means having an edge. This edge helps you being consistently profitable in the long run.

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Happy trading,

-Dale

Order Flow Day Trading Strategy – Stacked Imbalances

Today, I would like to show you a nice trade scenario on today’s EUR futures and AUD futures.

There was a strong and aggressive selling activity in today’s EU session on the EUR. If you look at the 5 Minute Order Flow chart below, you will see some stacked “blue” numbers on the Bid side of the footprint (= sellers).

Those “blue” orders started this sell-off. All the rest of the sellers joined in later (snowball effect).

The reason my Order Flow software marked those orders in blue is because those orders were “Selling Imbalances”.

An  imbalance indicates aggressivity of one side of the market. In this case, aggressive sellers. If a number on Bid is 3x bigger than the number on Ask (diagonally), then it basically tells you that there were 3x or more aggressive sellers than buyers. In other words – sellers were way stronger here.

Stacked Imbalances Strategy – EUR Futures

Imbalances show quite often, but what is REALLY important are “Stacked Imbalances”.

“Stacked Imbalances” are three or more imbalances at top of each other. My software marks them and prints red/green highlight zone there. Such a zone represents an area, where sellers or buyers were way more aggressive than the other party. And that’s very important information because this area will most likely work as a strong Support/Resistance.

The reason is that the aggressive sellers/buyers are likely to become aggressive again when the price makes a pullback to this area again.

This methodology gives us a very simple and effective trading strategy. The software does all the visualization for you and prints the Supports and Resistances itself! That’s why this is very easy and effective strategy to follow.

You can also nicely combine this strategy with other Order Flow strategies that I teach in my Order Flow Video Course.

Here is the example from today’s EUR futures on a 5 Minute chart:

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Stacked Imbalances Strategy – AUD Futures

I have one more example of this strategy for you. This time it was a nice Stacked Imbalance Setup on AUD  futures.

There was a selling activity which started with 3 Stacked Imbalances representing aggressive sellers entering the market. Then, twenty minutes later, there was a pullback to this area. The sellers became aggressive again and they pushed the price downwards from this zone again.

You can see that on the picture below:

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I hope you guys liked the article, let me know what you think in the comments below!

Happy trading,

-Dale

NZD/CAD – Volume Profile & Order Flow Analysis

Today, I would like to have a closer look at NZD/CAD. What caught my eye here was a strong sell-off that occurred last week (13th May).

Such a strong sell-off is a sign of aggressive sellers jumping in and pushing the price downwards.

In this case, it is pretty easy to spot where those sellers were accumulating their selling positions before they started the aggressive sell-off.

Price Action

Price Action shows that there was a rotation before the sell-off started. Such a rotation is an ideal place for position accumulation.

The reason is that in a rotation those sellers could easily hide their intentions (of starting a sell-off) and slowly, unnoticed accumulated their short positions.

Volume Profile

If you look at the Weekly Volume Profile (on the left) then you can see massive volumes accumulated exactly in that rotation area.

In fact, the heaviest volumes throughout the whole week got accumulated there! (= Weekly Point Of Control).

After those volumes got accumulated → BOOM! A sell-off! It is this sell-off where the sellers were making money.

Now the price is slowly retracing back into this area (to test the Weekly POC at 0.8548).

I think that it will work as a strong resistance and that those sellers will want to defend their short positions.

It is likely, that they will start selling again and try and push the price downwards again.

Below is a 60 Minute chart of NZD/CAD with Weekly Volume Profiles:

Order Flow

We can also identify those sellers using Order Flow!

I zoomed into the rotation area which was formed before the sell-off started to show you how it looked like in there.

The thing which I think is the most important here is the High Volume Nodes. They are easy to identify (at last with my software) because they are printed in darker shades and put into a frame.

There are two especially strong ones, and the strongest one (1440) was formed just before the sell-off started.

Those were without any doubt strong sellers getting ready!

That’s a nice confirmation of the resistance we initially found using the Volume Profile! We can actually see the big guys getting ready here! Cool, right?

You know, I am really proud that we were able to make the Order Flow like this. I don’t think there is any other Order Flow software able to read Forex this way!

Below is NZD/CAD Order Flow. The footprints show 30 Minute candles and the volumes traded in them:

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Happy trading!

-Dale

PS. You can now get my new ORDER FLOW PACK (including Order Flow software, Order Flow Video Course, and Volume Profile Pack) here: ORDER FLOW PACK

How to Use Order Flow on Forex

Today, I will do an intraday analysis of CHF/JPY. It will be a bit different this time because I will also use Order Flow.

Let’s first talk about what the Price Action and Volume Profile show.

There has been a strong downtrend since the beginning of this week. There haven’t been any major pullbacks and the price has been heading downwards steadily.

Volume Profile analysis

When there is a trend like this I like to use my Volume Profile to look in that trend area. What I look for are significant Volume Clusters (areas where heavy volumes were traded).

The reason CHF/JPY caught my eye today was because there are THREE Volume Clusters! Three very nicely visible and easy to identify heavy volume areas.

I believe that the volumes we see in those three areas were aggressive sellers, who were adding to their selling positions.

After each volume accumulation, those sellers pushed the price aggressively downwards – to make money on those positions they have entered in the Volume Cluster areas.

Those Volume Clusters now represent significant resistance zones. If there is no change in the market sentiment those zones should hold and reverse the price (when there is a pullback).

Logic behind Volume Clusters

The logic behind this is that the sellers who have entered their short positions in those Volume Clusters will want to defend their shorts. And if there is a pullback, then those guys are most likely to start selling and pushing the price downwards again. That’s why I think those three areas will work as resistances.

You can see all that in the screenshot below. It shows 30 Minute chart of CHF/JPY along with those three resistances:

Order Flow

The Order Flow software is usually used with Futures. However, my software has some special features which allows you to use it on Forex too! The functions are limited because Forex is decentralized but still it is pretty helpful!

I used the Order Flow to look into detail how the 109.51 resistance area looks like – how exactly the volumes were distributed there.

Heavy volume nodes (HVN)

The most important thing to notice is how the heavy volume nodes were distributed (HVN = those numbers in black rectangles showing where the heaviest volumes were traded in the given footprint).

What I want to see is heavy volume nodes created very close to each other – in one price level area. In the picture below, you can see that many of them were created around the 109.51 area.

This gives me another confirmation that the sellers were interested especially in this area. It also helps me identify the best place for a short trade.

In this case, it would be exactly 109.51 because this is where two heavy volume nodes were next to each other. To me this is the most important level which I was able to pin-point with Order Flow.

This is an effective way how you can use Order Flow on Forex to look into detail how support and resistance areas were formed.

If you see heavy volume nodes very close to one price level, then this makes the support/resistance stronger. It confirms it. It also makes your trade entry more precise (you want to enter your trade at the price level where heavy volume nodes were created).

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

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CAD/JPY: Volume Profile Analysis

Price Action Analysis

Today, I will do an intraday analysis of CAD/JPY.

What caught my eye when I went through the charts in the morning, was that there was a rotation from which strong buying activity started.

This usually means that there were buyers entering their long positions in that rotation. After they have entered their longs, they started aggressive buying to push the price upwards – to make money on the longs which they placed in the rotation.

I am always interested when I see Price Action like this.

*I call this a Volume Accumulation setup and you can learn more about it here: Volume Profile Setups

Volume Profile Analysis

My next step was that I used my Flexible Volume Profile to look at how the volumes were distributed yesterday.

The heaviest volumes were in the rotation area, and the heaviest volume peak (where most of the trades got placed) was around 76.38.

This is where the buyers placed most of their longs. This is a support they will want to defend.

So, if the price makes a pullback to this area I think that those buyers will be defending their longs and they will start aggressive buying again to push the price upwards again.

Weekly POC

A nice addition to all that is that this support is also a Weekly POC (Point Of Control). This means that the heaviest volumes were traded at this price level this week!

You can see that on a 60 Minute chart with a Weekly Volume Profile below:

Volume Cluster at 76.56

As the price was moving upwards, more buyers were jumping in to make money on that up-move.

Most of them jumped in around 76.56. You can see that on the Flexible Volume Profile – there is a significant volume cluster around the 76.56 area.

When the price makes it back to this area again, it is pretty likely that those buyers will want to defend their longs which they placed in that Volume Cluster (76.56 area).

In order to do that they will need to start buying again – aggressive buying! This should drive the price upwards again and this is what makes this level a strong support.

Resistance → Support

There is also one nice confluence to the Volume Cluster. If you look at the picture above, you can see that the 76.56 level also worked as a resistance in the past. The price got rejected there aggressively.

The price went through this resistance yesterday, and it turned into a support. This is an old but pretty effective Price Action setup which I really like to see in a combination with the Volume Cluster – like in this case.

You can learn more about this setup here:

Resistance → Support (Price Action Setup)

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below.

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

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How To Trade In A Trend With Volume Profile – Weekly Trading Ideas 27.4.2020

*Disclaimer: Presented opinions, trades and trading ideas on the markets and charts is not advice nor a trading recommendation. It is general information and it is for educational purposes only.

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AUD/NZD: VWAP and Volume Profile Analysis

Yesterday, I wrote an article about VWAP trading setups. I showed you how to use VWAP when there is a rotation and also how to use it in a trend.

If you missed it then you can read the article here:

VWAP Trading Setups

Today, I will do an intraday analysis of the AUD/NZD and I will use VWAP and Volume Profile just the way I showed you in the article yesterday.

Identify the Trend

The first thing to do is to identify whether there is a rotation or a trend. In this case it is pretty simple. The 1st VWAP deviation (Weekly VWAP) is moving upwards. This means that the price and volumes are shifting upwards and that there is an uptrend.

In this case you could also tell by just looking at the price action without using the VWAP. Sometimes it is not so clear as here though…

VWAP Trend Setup

When there is a trend you want to see the price moving above the 1st Deviation and make pullbacks to it. Then you want to trade longs from those pullbacks.

If you look at the picture below, you can see that the 1st Deviation is trending nicely and that the price is moving above it. When the price hits the 1st Deviation, then chances are there will be a buying reaction!

Another thing to notice here is that the 1st Deviation from the previous week ended very close to the area of the current 1st Deviation. This adds strength to the support.

You can also notice a significant volume area around this support on the Weekly Volume Profile. I will talk bit more about it later.

Below is a 60 Minute chart of AUD/NZD, with Weekly VWAP and Weekly Volume Profile:

Volume Profile analysis

Let’s now have a look some more into the volume distribution in this trend area.

I used my Flexible Volume Profile to the whole trend area to identify places where significant volumes were traded.

There are two significant volume areas visible. The first one (around 1.0580) corresponds with the support from the VWAP Trend setup (the picture above).

As the price was moving upwards, buyers were adding to their long positions in those heavy volume areas.

It is likely that when there is a pullback into those heavy volume areas, buyers will want to defend their longs and they will try to push the price upwards from those areas again.

Below is 30 Minute chart of AUD/NZD with Flexible Volume Profile:

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What I like about all this the most is the confluence. 1st VWAP Deviation points us to a trading level and Volumes point us to the same place too!

This is how I like to use VWAP and the Deviations – as a combo with the Volume Profile. That’s where the VWAP strategies shine the most!

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

Trading The Weekly POC – Weekly Trading Ideas 20.4.2020

*Disclaimer: Presented opinions, trades and trading ideas on the markets and charts is not advice nor a trading recommendation. It is general information and it is for educational purposes only.

**You can learn more about my trading setups in my new book:

If you would like to learn to trade with Volume Profile and to trade with me every day, then join my Trading Course!

                                    Click the button below to get more information:

EUR/CAD: How To Combine Volume Profile and VWAP

In my yesterday’s Weekly Trading Ideas video I was talking about a strong resistance on EUR/CAD. The price has already reacted to this resistance and those who took this trade had a nice profit.

What I want to show you now is how you could have used VWAP ho get the best out of this trade.

The first thing to notice is the 1st deviation of Weekly VWAP. That’s the grey line. In this case it represents a good resistance (this is based on a trading setup I talked about in this VWAP webinar: VWAP Trading Strategies).

Combined with heavy volumes I talked about yesterday (marked in red) it made a nice confluence of two strong resistances (volumes + VWAP deviation).

Another thing I talked about in my VWAP webinar was that a good place for a Take Profit was very often the VWAP line (yellow line).

Check it out in the picture below:

New Support on EUR/CAD

Now, I would like to continue with the EUR/CAD analysis and talk about a newly formed intraday support.

If you look at what the Volume Profile showed yesterday, then you can see that there was a “double distribution” shape (looks like a capital letter B).

This means that heavy volumes were accumulated at the low of the day, and then the price went upwards. Then there were heavy volumes accumulated at the end of the day (high of the day).

This tells me that strong buyers were building up their buying positions, then they moved the price upwards and then there was a new balance (new fair value area).

What happens when the price makes it back to the heavy volume area at the bottom of all this? Those buyers who entered their positions there will most likely start defending those positions. They will start entering aggressive market buy orders. With those they will try to move the price upwards again.

That’s why I think the 1.5181 area will work as a support.

Below is a 30 minute chart of EUR/CAD:

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VWAP confirmation

A nice confirmation to this 1.5181 support is the 1st Deviation (of the Weekly VWAP). That’s the grey line. If it stays somewhere in the 1.5181…

If it stays there then it will meet with the heavy volumes and it will create a nice confluence to the volume-based support I showed you!

That’s how I like to combine Volume Profile and VWAP!

Below is EUR/CAD, 60 Minute chart, Weekly Volume Profile and Weekly VWAP indicator:

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Happy trading!

-Dale

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AUD/CAD: Volume Profile Analysis

Today I will look into an intraday trade analysis of the AUD/CAD. There was a strong buying activity all across the AUD related pairs yesterday and it created some nice trading opportunities.

Volume Accumulation

What I always like to see is a price rotation which is followed by a trend. I call this the Volume Accumulation Setup.

First, volumes get accumulated in the rotation and then the big guys push the price into the trend to make money.

Why do volumes get accumulated in a rotation? Because the big guys can hide there. They don’t want to show their intentions. They want to enter their positions slowly and unnoticed.

Instead of entering for example 1.000 lot position, they do it like this: 1+1+1+1+1+1+1… Even if they do this super fast entering such a big position this way takes time. Why do they do it like this? Because this way they can hide their intentions! They don’t want to send a message which would say that “a big guy has just entered a trade”.

AUD/CAD Volume Accumulation

In today’s example, there was a rotation on AUD/CAD. Heavy volumes got accumulated in this rotation.

The big guys entered their longs unnoticed in the rotation and then they started the uptrend.

What happens when the price makes it back to this volume accumulation area? Those big guys will most likely try and defend their long positions. In order to do that they will start aggressive buying to push the price upwards again.

This is what will make this area around 0.8618 a strong support.

Below is the AUD/CAD; 30 Minute chart:

Weekly POC

There is one more confirmation to this support level. It is the Point Of Control of this week. This means that the heaviest volumes throughout this whole week got traded at this level (0.8618).

The Weekly POC is always an important thing to watch because every institutional trader who trades using volume indicators (most of them) know where the POC is.

In my opinion, the POC is the most important information the Volume Profile indicator gives you.

Below is a 60 Minute chart of AUD/CAD and with Weekly Volume Profile:

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

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A Strong Support On Oil

On Friday, I wrote an article on long-term investment in Oil. I talked about the prices dropping crazy low and making Oil very attractive for a long-term investment. If you missed the article you can read it here:

Oil Price Can’t Drop to $0. How To Profit On That?

Today, I am going to look more into intraday Oil analysis. You know, even an intraday trade could prove a good starting point for a swing (or long-term) trade. So, if you are looking for an ideal price to jump in a long-term long on Oil, then this analysis could prove helpful.

Buying activity on Oil

The first significant buying activity on Oil occurred a few days ago (2nd April) when Donald Trump made a statement that he made an agreement with Saudi Arabia (Oil gained around 25% immediately).

I  believe that this could be the start of a new uptrend. For this reason, I am looking for significant volume clusters created within the newly formed trend.

What I did was that I used my Flexible Volume Profile on the most significant trend day – the day of the announcement (2nd April). It revealed a nice volume cluster (around 22.20) that occurred before the news came out.

Now, do you think that the big guys who move and manipulate the markets did not know beforehand about this announcement? I am not really sure. I guess that they knew and I think they were jumping into longs in this volume cluster area.

What will happen when the price makes it back to this volume cluster again? I think that it is pretty likely that those big guys will try to defend their longs. They will try and push the price upwards again. That’s why I think it will work as a support.

30 Minute Oil chart below:

Another confirmation

There is also one more confirmation here. If you look at the picture below, then you can see that the price reacted quite nicely to this 22.20 area in the past. It worked as a resistance.

It was not exactly the 22.20 level, but it does not matter. The important thing is that it was somewhere in this area.

When the price went past the resistance it then became a support.

So, we have a Trend Setup based on the volume cluster and a resistance becoming a support setup.

60 Minute Oil chart below:

OPEC meeting tomorrow

There is an OPEC meeting scheduled on Thursday (tomorrow). This could really make the Oil prices very volatile. You should be very careful trading the Oil at that time tomorrow. My advice would be to avoid trading it. At least avoid doing intraday trades on Oil. The situation on Oil is now very tense.

NZD/USD resistance

Did you watch the Weekly Trading Ideas video I published on Monday? I was talking about a resistance on NZD/USD. You can see the prediction (screenshot from the video) and the result below.

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If you look closely, then you can notice that the price actually missed the exact level I talked about. It missed it by just 1.5 pip and then there was this really nice sell-off.

You know support and resistances are not exact levels. They are “ZONES”. The price should react somewhere in that zone. It does not need to react exactly at the heaviest volume peak. Like in this case – the absolute volume peak was 1.5 pip higher and the price just did not make it that high and the sell-off started sooner.

This happens sometimes and there is no way how to avoid this with Price Action or Volume profile. BUT there is a tool which actually helps avoid such situations! It is called Order Flow and right now I am developing my own Order Flow software and I cannot wait to present it to you!

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

AUD/CHF: Intraday Trading Opportunities

Today’s buying on the AUD created some nice trading opportunities on the AUD related pairs. Like for example on the AUD/CHF which I am going to analyze in this article. I am going to focus on an intraday analysis using 30 Minute and 60 Minute charts.

When there is a trend like now, I always use my Flexible Volume Profile indicator to look into the trend. What I am interested in most are places where heavy volumes got traded. I call those places “volume clusters“.

Volume Clusters

Volume clusters are a sign that buyers or sellers were adding or building up their trading positions. If there is an uptrend like in this case, then it was buyers who were adding to their long positions. They wanted to make most of the uptrend.

When the price makes it back to those volume clusters then it is likely that they will work as support zones. Why? Because those buyers who accumulated their longs in the volume clusters will want to defend those areas.

Below is a 30 Minute chart of the AUD/CHF where you can see two significant volume clusters. Both make a nice volume-based supports. The first is at 0.5976 and the second is at 0.5956. When the price makes a pullback to them then the buyers should step in and push the price upwards again.

Resistance becoming a Support

There is also a very nice confluence which I always like to see with this Trend setup. The confluence is at the 1st support (0.5976).

The picture below shows the same chart, now with 60 Minute time frame. As you can see, there was a really strong rejection of this price level in the past. The price reacted to this level aggressively and it is pretty obvious that this level worked as a strong resistance.

On Monday the price reacted to this level again. Not so strongly this time but the reaction was there.

Today the price went past this twice tested resistance. When it did the resistance became a support. This is quite old but working price action setup and you can learn some more about it in here:

Resistance turns into Support (and vice versa)

What I like about this is that this setup points me to the same level as the 1st volume cluster (0.5976). That’s a nice confluence I am always happy to see and trade.

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Yesterday’s trades

Did you watch yesterday’s Weekly Trading Ideas Video I posted here? Two levels I was talking about got already hit.

The first one was on the NZD/CAD. Below is the prediction from the video and the result:

The second level that got already hit was on the CHF/JPY. The reaction to it was not as nice as on the previous pair but still if you took the trade for example with 20 pip TP and 20 pip SL then it would turn out a nice winner.

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

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How to Track The Institutions With Volume Profile – Weekly Trading Ideas 6.4.2020

*Disclaimer: Presented opinions, trades and trading ideas on the markets and charts is not advice nor a trading recommendation. It is general information and it is for educational purposes only.

**You can learn more about my trading setups in my new book: VOLUME PROFILE: The insider’s guide to trading

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CAD/JPY: Volume Profile Analysis

Let’s have a look at the CAD/JPY, intraday chart analysis today, okay? There was a nice rotation followed by a strong sell-off in the European session.

I used my Flexible Volume Profile to look inside the rotation and I found what I expected – heavy volumes accumulated there. So to me, it seems that sellers were accumulating their shorts in this area at the end of the US session and in the Asian session.

What they did next was that they started a sell-off. That’s how institutions work. They accumulate their positions without being noticed in a rotation and then they start a trend. It is the same thing over and over again. It is the trend where they are making money from the positions they accumulated in the rotation.

As you can see from the picture below, the price is slowly getting back into the rotation area again. To the area where the sellers entered their short positions.

CAD/JPY; 30 Minute chart:

What will happen when the price gets there?

Two factors to push the price down

1) The sellers will want to defend their shorts. They have two options – to fight or let their shorts run into red numbers. So, yeah – they will fight! They will try to push the price downwards again. They will do it by sell market orders (aggressive orders).

2) Another thing that will happen is that the buyers who are currently pushing the price upwards (pullback) will be afraid to fight the sellers. Those buyers are not stupid, they know about the sellers and their heavy volumes accumulated around 76.34. So instead of risking a fight, these buyers will back off. They will get rid of their longs. Where? At the resistance (which is the heavy volume area).

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What if buyers become aggressive?

What could also happen is that there could be some fundamental change in the market sentiment and that the buyers will actually want to fight with the sellers no matter what. They would start aggressively pushing the price upwards by market buy orders and if they are strong enough they push through. This would mean the resistance would get broken.

In a case like this it is best to use a Reversal trade strategy (enter a Long). More about this strategy here:

The Complete Guide To Reversal Trades With Volume Profile

Weekly POC

Let’s now get back to the chart because there are two more things I wanted to show you there. The first thing is a Weekly Point Of Control. This POC is very close to the resistance we found (76.34). It tells us that there were massive volumes accumulated throughout this whole week there. This adds to the strength of the resistance level.

Pin bar

The second thing is just a little confirmation, but still it is worth noticing. It is the pin bar created within the rotation area. This pin bar shows the aggressivity of the sellers who rejected higher prices (when the price was rotating and sellers were accumulating shorts)

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

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EUR/GBP: Intraday Analysis With Volume Profile and VWAP

Today, I will focus on the intraday analysis of the EUR/GBP. What caught my eye here was a rotation from which a strong sell-off started yesterday.

Why it caught my eye? Because in a rotation, heavy volumes are usually traded (accumulated). Big trading institutions need a rotation to accumulate their big trading positions. They need time and liquidity. The rotation takes some time so that suits them. When a price rotates then it also means that the market found its fair price (fair value) – at least temporarily. And this means traders are willing to buy and sell there = there is liquidity.

When there is a sell-off after such a rotation, then it indicates that the big guys (institutions) were building up their positions in that rotation. They were doing so unnoticed and without their intentions being revealed. After that, they started manipulating the price aggressively (with market orders)  to start a trend.

Volume Profile analysis

When I see a rotation from which a trend starts, then I look into that rotation using my Flexible Volume Profile. I look for a place where the volumes were the heaviest because this is the place where the big guys placed most of their positions. This is an important place, because when the price makes a pullback into this area again, then it is likely that those big guys will start defending their positions.

How will they defend them? They will start to sell aggressively again to push the price downwards. And that’s what I want to see. That’s what I want to participate in!

So, what I do is that I wait for the pullback and then enter a short from the place where they accumulated most of their positions. In this case, it is 0.8933. This is currently the strong intraday resistance on EUR/GBP.

You can see it in the picture below.

EUR/GBP; 30 Minute chart:

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VWAP analysis

There is one more thing I like about this 0.8933 resistance. The thing is a VWAP Trend Setup. With this setup you want to see the 1st VWAP deviations go sideways and you use them as support and resistance zones.

As you can see from the picture below, the 1st Deviation (the upper grey line) is moving sideways and it is currently exactly at the 0.8933 resistance. If it stays somewhere around this area then it will be a very nice confirmation of the volume-based level.

In the picture below I am using the Weekly VWAP. I find its signals stronger then the Daily VWAP. I like trading with the Weekly VWAP more then with the Daily.

BTW you can learn more about my VWAP setups in this webinar recording:

VWAP webinar – RECORDING

EUR/GBP; 60 Minute chart, Weekly VWAP:

EUR/JPY Prediction→Result

Did you watch my recent Weekly Trading ideas video? I made a prediction on EUR/JPY there. This prediction was based on the same setup as I showed you today (I call it the Volume Accumulation Setup). I was talking about a strong support at 118.26.

Upper picture is the prediction and the lower is a screenshot of the result. Nice and precise 60 pip reaction!

You can watch the whole video here:

Weekly Trading ideas – 30.3.2020

I hope you guys liked today’s intraday analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

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How to do an Intraday VWAP Analysis

In my recent VWAP webinar, I showed you two trading setups you can use with the VWAP indicator. One setup which you can use when there is a rotation and the other setup when there is a trend.

BTW. if you missed the webinar you can watch it here:

VWAP Trading Strategies – Webinar

Today, I would like to show you how you can apply those setups in your trading.

I will demonstrate this on a 60 Minute AUD/JPY chart. I will use a Weekly VWAP – which means that every new week a new VWAP gets calculated anew.

Trend vs. Rotation

The first thing you need to do is to identify whether there is a trend or a rotation. Why? Because in the trend you will want to use the “Trend VWAP  setup” and in rotation the “Rotation VWAP setup”.

As I said at the webinar – it is best to use VWAP deviations to identify a trend from a rotation. When deviation (the grey line) moves vertically, then there is a trend. When it moves horizontally, then there is a rotation.

In the picture below, I divided the chart into four sectors.

In the first one, the 1st deviation (grey line) moves downwards – so there is a trend and we want to trade the “Trend VWAP setup

In the second section, the 1st deviation moves horizontally. This means there is a rotation and we want to look for the “Rotation VWAP setup“.

The third section shows a trend again, so we want to look only for the “Trend VWAP setup“.

The most recent section shows a rotation, so now I am looking for the “Rotation VWAP setup”.

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Trade entries

The picture below shows the same chart. This time I indicated possible trade entries. Those trade entries are based on the two VWAP setups.

The first trade is a short and it is based on the “Trend VWAP setup”. Then the second trade is also a short but this time it is based on the “Rotation VWAP setup”. The same goes for the next four trades (all based on “Rotation VWAP setup”). Then the market goes into a trend again so the next trade is a long and it is based on the “Trend VWAP setup”.

The current rotation

Currently, there is a rotation and there are two areas where we could trade from – long and short.

What I like about the short is a confluence with Volume Profile indicator. If you use the Volume Profile to look into the recent selling area, then you can see that there is a “volume cluster“. This means heavy volumes got traded there. Quite possibly volumes of aggressive sellers who are currently pushing the price downwards. If the price makes it back to this area again, then those sellers could start selling aggressively again and defend their short positions. This would help to move the price downwards again.

This makes this area (around 66.30) an interesting place for a short trade. I marked it in the 60 Minute chart below:

I hope you guys liked today’s VWAP analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below.

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

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AUD/CHF: A Complete Intraday Chart Analysis

In my yesterday’s article, I showed you how I look for confluences of trading setups to identify strong supports and resistances. If you missed the article, then you can read it here:

EUR/CAD: Volume Profile + VWAP Daily Analysis

Because practice makes perfect, I will do a very similar analysis today. This time I will focus on AUD/CHF.

Volume Profile setup

The first thing that caught my eye here today, was a rotation and a strong buying activity starting from it. This is usually a sign of buyers who were building up their positions in the rotation, and who aggressively pushed the price upwards later.

I used my Flexible Volume Profile to look into the most recent area to see how the volumes were distributed there. I saw what I expected – heavy volumes accumulated around 0.5853.

Heavy volumes make this area a support. When the price makes a pullback into this area again, then the buyers who were building up their positions here should try and push the price upwards again. They will do so because they will want to defend their long positions.

Check it out on the picture below (AUD/CHF; 30 Minute TF):

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Price Action setup

Apart from the setup I mentioned above, there is also a Price Action setup I like to trade. This setup says that a breached support becomes a resistance (and vice versa). I identify old supports and resistances by simply looking at the charts looking for significant swing points. Those were old supports/resistances.

If you look at the picture below, you can see that there were three such swing points very close to the 0.5853 level. I marked those swing points in blue. This shows that the price jumped off the same area three times in the past and therefore, I consider it a resistance. This resistance got broken and the price went past it today. This means that the former resistance has now become a support.

You can learn more about this setup here:

Price Action Strategy: Support Becoming Resistance

Below is a 60 Minute chart of AUD/CHF:

VWAP setup

Apart from the Volume setup and the Resistance → Support setup, there is also one more setup forming.

It is the VWAP Trend setup (the #2 setup I showed at my recent VWAP webinar).

If you look at the picture above, then you can see that the 1st VWAP deviation is moving upwards (I am using the Weekly VWAP). This tells me that the volumes are shifting upwards and that there is an uptrend. In a situation like this the 1st deviation should work as a support. The deviation is being calculated in real time and if the price comes back to the 0.5853 area soon (for example today or tomorrow), then I think there is a good chance it will meet with the 1st Deviation – which could by that time make it to this level (I indicated it in the chart). This would make another nice confirmation.

As you can see, we have 2, possibly 3 trading setups which confirm each other. This is what I like to see and trade.

I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!

Stay safe and happy trading!

-Dale

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